The Day So Far
An interesting morning with UK inflation remaining at its highest level since 2012, while German GDP for the third quarter (Q/Q 0.8% vs Exp. 0.6%) acted as a catalyst for a push higher in the EUR which was further exacerbated by the break of the early November high (3rd) in the futures market. Meanwhile, the ECB Communications Conference taking place in Frankfurt has yielded no surprises from the big four (Yellen, Draghi, Carney, Kuroda) which was as expected and discussed in the morning briefing HERE. In summary, all four of the major central banks have set out their stalls for the foreseeable future and so there is little need for them to alter their stance at this point in time.
Looking elsewhere, there was an aggressive move lower in gold early in the session which occurred with little fundamental reasoning and appeared to be more a function of stops being breached on the break of the respective lows seen on Monday and Friday last week. Reports circulated after the dip of a large seller prompting the initial move but prices have since stabilised at S2 as we await the North American entrance.
The Day Ahead
The major release this afternoon is the October US PPI report which sets the platform for the more important CPI reading from the States on Wednesday. Although this data is unlikely to influence much the thinking about the probability of a December hike it does remain a key area that continues to constitute somewhat of a “conundrum” for the Fed as stated by Philly Fed President Harker last night.
Away from this some attention will be on UK Prime Minister from midday as she begins a line-by-line read through of the EU withdrawal bill in the House of Commons. The reason for the heightened interest is the context of recent political developments where the loss of two senior cabinet officials last week has further dented confidence about the long-term leadership of Theresa May.